Some early thoughts on G+…

I’ve been using Google Plus since very early July after receiving one of the earlier invitations to try it out (Thanks Ray !). After using it for the past few weeks, I have a few observations about what may be the future adoption of this site. I’m not talking about the UI, or the technical aspects, or even about Circles and privacy considerations. Rather what I’m noticing is the (albeit very early) way it’s being used by those I’ve observed online and what I foresee happening in the longer term.

Most of my online acquaintances are heavily invested in Facebook and to a lesser extent, Xing. I even have two friends who still use MySpace. Although I have a few dozen connections and some photos on FB, I was never that much invested in it and I often went days without even taking a glance in its direction.

Even though the pundits are talking about the rapid growth of Google Plus (which is certainly true), what I’m not seeing is the any indication that people are abandoning Facebook in favor of G+. Let’s face it, that’s what Google wants and that’s what they’re going after. They want this to be a zero-sum game.

I happen to like the clean UI and better (to me) privacy settings at G+. I like the fact that it’s not all junked up with games and ads although I’m sure they’re coming. (I do miss being able to poke someone, though – seriously). I also miss the ability to do a true PM, but I can certainly get by with the ‘workaround’ presented (post to one contact only, and disable ‘reshare’).

Not surprisingly, many of users I’ve seen on G+ tend to be professional marketers, SEO types, ‘social media’ groupies, or those who like to be early adopters. What I have yet to see is the adoption of G+ by the high school, college students and twenty somethings who make up so much of the current traffic on FB. It’s going to take a huge catalyst – something, whatever – to get them to do more than take a peek at G+ and actually begin using it.

Remember, I’m not a marketer or SEO guy and my comments here are worth exactly what you’ve paid for them, but what I foresee is a dual social-media world in which both FB and G+ are able to coexist (in spite of Google’s best efforts). I doubt that Gens X and Y will give up Facebook in favor of G+, but what I see is their gradual adoption of G+ as a kind of steppingstone to a more professional (but still fun) social media outlet. Kind of a halfway house between Facebook and LinkedIn. Use of G+ gives everyone a chance to rethink their ‘friends’ list and start off again perhaps a bit more carefully and with more reflection than they may have used with Facebook, given the often willy-nilly, motley collection of ‘friends’ that one really doesn’t know in the least.

Both of my daughters have signed on to G+. One is 18 and the other is 21. They’re both prime candidates for adoption and the perfect target audience that Google Inc. is seeking for this new platform. Neither however, has posted anything even once as of this writing. That’s what I’m waiting to see.

Brother, can you spare (another) €100,000,000,000 ?

Today’s report that France and Germany have reached a tentative agreement – a “common position” as the BBC terms it – is the first good news regarding the Greek debt crisis which also threatens Portugal, Spain, and even Italy if Europe’s central bankers can’t figure out a way to resolve the Eurozone debt crisis. There is still a lot of work to do, but at least the leaders of these countries, two of Europe’s leading economic powerhouses, seem to have reached a mutual agreement to propose to the bankers currently meeting in Brussels. Greece has already implemented a severe austerity program and the citizens certainly are unhappy with the cuts they must face, but if those austerity measures along with the extension and the restructuring of Greece’s debt obligations into longer term payments, ease the crisis and prevent Greece from a full default, then it’s a necessity not only for the European economy, but ours as well.

The proposal calls not only for another 100 bn Euros, but would allow Greece to extend its payment schedules and request/require (?) non-governmental financial institutions to carry some of the additional bailout burden. At present, this is only a proposal, but it’s an indication that all parties recognize how serious this is for everyone.

The second half of this worldwide economic crisis is with the potential for the US to default on its own debt obligations in less than two weeks. Our own US Congress and the President’s economic team must come together and hammer out a compromise solution to enable us to raise our own debt ceiling so we can avoid an embarrassing and economically devastating default of our own. To say these are troubling, worrisome economic times is an extreme understatement. Imagine the scenario if Europe can’t reach an agreement on how to resolve the Eurozone debt crisis at the same time that the US defaults on its own debt obligations because of the refusal of members of Congress to work together. Could the result be another economic maelstrom such as the worldwide depression in the 1930s ? I don’t know – I’m not a macroeconomist or a banker and my comments here are just my own ramblings. But I am a student of history and knowing that the worldwide equity markets loathe uncertainty, I fear the worst unless those politicians and financial decision-makers that we place our trust in do the right thing – for the sake of us all.

Teaching Young People About Life Abroad

I’ve always been interested in foreign languages and life in other countries. If anyone has ever read any of my other woefully sporadic blog entries, there’s an obvious recurring theme regarding events abroad or international economics or something related to life outside the United States.
One of my biggest regrets is that I never took advantage of a study abroad option while in college. It was there for the taking and I didn’t do it. Don’t ask me why, but I’ve regretted that (non)decision big time. Ever since, I’ve tried to steer my career in an international direction with small bits of success, but just a little. Enough to taste it, but that’s about it. However, I continue to study my languages (German and French) when possible and I’ve built an impressive network of contacts abroad in many facets of professional life. Unfortunately, my actual career goal of living (or at least working) abroad on a regular basis has eluded me, though I’m doing my best not to give up. Suffice to say that raising a family has forced me to put aside certain career goals aside in favor of more important work here.

But now, though I’m living that international experience vicariously through my daughter who at the moment is traveling through various European capitals before heading over to the UK for study at Oxford. I am proud of her - not only because she seems to have absorbed my love of languages and intercultural affairs, but she has managed to actually become quite conversant in French and is now working on learning German. Although I am moderately conversant in German, and can hack around in French, she has seriously surpassed my abilities in that language. She has the dreams I once had of living the expat life in some European capital, and I hope she achieves that goal.

If you are the parent or adult advisor to a young person today. Please do your young person, and the rest of us by extension, a huge favor by encouraging them to study a second (or even third !) language. Encourage them read newspapers from other countries – it’s not hard to find the ‘English’ option on most foreign news outlets and online services. Study economics. Look at the ‘Picture of the Day’ on the BBC or Stern.de websites. See how others live and what they’re doing or celebrating. We’ll all be better the more we each understand about the background and cultures of those who live in other corners of this increasingly smaller world. Encourage them to take every opportunity to live, study, or work abroad – make the opportunity happen, and help them achieve it while they’re young, because once that threshold to adulthood is reached, it becomes much more difficult to see the world as others do.

Santayana revisited

I was never much one to read (or understand) the great writers of philosophy. Try as I might, I just never quite understood what it was they were trying to say, and I always felt out of my league when someone I know is able to intelligently discuss philosophy. Kant, Schopenhauer, Hobbes, Nietzsche - the list goes on, including the ever popular George Santayana, who most people, including me, only know through his famous aphorism, usually paraphrased something like, "Those who do not remember the past are compelled to repeat it". I've never read anything he's written except this, but it never rings truer than it does right now.

It is Santayana whom I think of when I read the news about the return of 'Baby Doc' Duvalier to Haiti. The return of this man to this wretched land is the last thing this poor country needs. Unfortunately, I think he smells an opportunity to step back and reclaim some of the power he once held over this small nation but perhaps more likely a chance to regain some of the riches he once held after he first pillaged the country. It's not hard to note that a a weakened central government, a ruined infrastructure, a citizenry that is desperately poor, and in in the capital city itself, lacking even the most basic necessities - provides an open door for a charismatic leader to step in and attempt to take the reins. Say nothing that Haiti currently has a democratically elected government and president. We've all seen populist uprisings in other nations across the globe. Sometimes nations rise up and democracy reigns afterwords (Poland, and then eventual fall of Soviet domination across Eastern Europe); sometimes the result is even more severe oppression and bloodshed (Myanmar, Iran).

The legacy of pain and suffering that the Duvalier family has foisted upon this nation cannot be ignored or forgotten. He, his father, and their murdurous Ton Ton Macoutes raped and pillaged this country for what little wealth it had. He has no business being anywhere except in a Haitian prison, yet here he is now, returned from an quiet life in Paris, supposedly back in Port au Prince to help with the reconstruction of the country. Does anyone really believe him, and why should they?

Sadly though, with something like half of Haiti's population under 20 years old, will anyone even remember the past?

Closing the chapter on the Great War

This is very interesting. Spiegel reports that Germany is about to make its final payment on the bonds it issued to raise cash in order to pay war reparations to the Allies after the end of WW1. According to the magazine, Germany issued these bonds to raise cash for the reparations and once issued, repaid them per their regular installments (except during the 2nd World War and through 1953 while the country was rebuilding).

By the early 1980s, the debt itself was repaid leaving the accrued interest still due. Now, on October 3, the final installment of that interest will be paid coinciding with the 20th anniversary of German unification following the collapse of die Mauer two years earlier.

Diversity through globalization

The fears that some people have regarding the dilution of ‘culture’ aren’t peculiar to the US (although due to our size and socioeconomic footprint that’s all many residents of the states seem to hear or read about). All in all, the angst some people here feel about the growing influence of native Spanish speaking Americans is echoed by similar feelings in other countries. Michael Kimmelman of the New York Times writes (a few weeks ago) about a related sentiment felt by some native Frenchman who are fretting about what they perceive as a growing loss of native French culture (whatever that means). The crucial difference though isn’t really the loss of culture per se, but rather the increasing percentage of French citizens who also speak other languages and who are bringing their own cultural influences in music, art, food, dress to France. Over just a few generations, much of western Europe has itself become a huge melting pot and a naïve (or unread, uneducated) visitor may be surprised to see the numbers of native north African, middle Eastern, or Caribbean residents speaking fluent French while on the way to their mosque or local market. The most interesting comment in the article was the statement by Kimmelman is that “French isn’t declining. It’s thriving like never before” with some 200 million French speakers worldwide. However of that 200 million, only 65 million are native French with the rest from former French colonies or outposts. The most astute comment I read is from Abdou Diouf, the former president of Senegal who leads a francophone organization, International Organization of the Francophonie, who says, (I paraphrase) , that the greater the influence of globalization (particularily spread through the internet) “the more we find common cultural differences and values” – including diversity – and diversity is the real result of globalization.

Mrs. Merkel goes to Washington

For the first time in over 50 years, the sitting German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has given a speech to the combined houses of the US Congress. The last time this happened was when Konrad Adenauer spoke to Congress way back in 1957.
Speaking first auf Englisch, and then reverting to German, Merkel thanked the US for its role in helping create the political climate which ultimately led to the fall of the wall ("der Mauersturz"). Interestingly enough, and in an obvious nod to another period, she noted that November 9 was also the date of Kristallnacht in 1938 which many feel was the true beginning of the Holocaust.
She noted the American efforts behind the Berlin Airlift and the leadership exhibited by the US as strong allies of Germany. Quite notably, she specifically mentioned the necessity to help maintain Israel's security and prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. "Wer Israel bedroht, bedroht auch uns" - "What threatens Israel, threatens us all".

I found the headline in die Zeit, "Merkel dankt USA für Wiedervereinigung" a bit interesting. It translates as "Merkel thanks the USA for reunification" and that seems just a bit over the top - especially for a German language article, but maybe that's just a layout editor's journalistic license showing.

It was 20 years ago (not quite) today...

November 1989 was a watershed year in global politics. That was the year in which the Iron Curtain was finally parted - a process which began (at least in the most visible sense) - with Lech Walesa's leadership of the Solidarity party in Poland and ended with the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989. There are lots of articles and reminiscences being published now - many along of the lines of, "Where were you when the Wall fell?" and the like.
But whether you read German or not, almost everyone can learn from this very cool multimedia graphic published in the Berliner Morgenpost.

Je suis, tu es, il est, nous sommes...

The Economist magazine has a blog written by a writer using the pen name, "Charlemagne". I read it when I can, but not often enough. Charlemagne recently wrote this article about the decline of foreign language abilities in the UK. I especially like the comment in the article that "Learning a foreign language teaches you humility, empathy and respect for others. In Europe, it teaches you the ancient links that unite our squabbling continent."
Well said. I've studied languages my whole life. I've been fortunate to visit Europe many times for work as well as pleasure, but to my deep dismay, I've never had the opportunity to live there for an extended period of time. I've strongly encouraged my daughters that in addition to whatever else they take up in their life, a firm grasp of second language would be to their advantage and betterment. I generally an open minded person, but I cannot understand why some people have no interest in learning more about life in other countries. This isn't just about language studies - it's about really trying to be more aware of the cultural influences that affect the way others see us, and we see them. Studies of language (if left unfettered) will naturally lead to study of history, literature, art and ultimately a better understanding of what makes us tick.

I've always enjoyed reading Michael Kimmelman's articles in the NYT, but I think he's missing something here. He questions why so few people visiting museums seem to take the time to really 'look' at the art within and are content with brief glances, a few photos, and then it's on to the next gallery.
Whatever it is - fortune, fate, circumstances, planning - he has been given him the opportunity to live abroad, something I've always wanted, but might never obtain. He can (I suspect) visit the Louvre, the Rijksmuseum, the Pergamon, far more readily than those of us not already in Europe. Someone living there can make repeat visits and maybe afford the time to linger and really 'see' the works of art at a studied pace without having to rush through everything.
Most visitors to the world's great museums are not residents of those cities and have no choice but to hurry along and squeeze in as much as possible in the time allowed. Americans especially are pressed by time and financial constraints more than your average European resident. Few of us can afford to spend even a week in Europe and those that can manage that quickly realize they have an overwhelming task at hand. A week in Paris for a first-time visitor is not enough time to arrive, check into the hotel, orient oneself, figure out the Metro, check the maps, learn where things are, and then try to visit the Louvre, d'Orsay, Eiffel Tower, Notre Dame, walk along the Seine, visit the Musee Picasso, Arc de Triomphe, stroll the Champs-Élysées, Luxemburg Gardens, shop, eat, rest, etc. Want to to cram in a side trip to Versailles too? How about Normandy? Forget it.
I've been lucky to visit Europe numerous times, but when I'm travelling for pleasure, I have had no choice but to rise early, plan days with military precision, and try not to rush through these wonderful museums (but truth be told, rush we must). On my last visit to Berlin, I had less than a single day to visit both the Pergamon and the Bode Museum. But that's ok - I'll be back. Many visitors will never get the chance to return.

Hitting the (Outdoor) Mall....

One of things that seems to typify European life to me besides the languages, history, cultural differences, etc. is the prevalence of pedestrian malls and large public squares within major city centers. The following article from the IHT about a new pedestrian mall in Madrid is a perfect example. I'm reminded also of the 'Fussgängerzone' in Wiesbaden, Karl Johansgate in Oslo, Kärnter and Graben streets in Vienna - the list goes on.

We in the US certain have some of these scattered about, and of course many of our cities have beautiful urban parks offering a respite from the grit and cacophony of urban life, but I think that a clean, dedicated pedestrian zone within major city centers including high-end shopping, restaurants, cafes, bakeries, and hotels would go a very long way to attract investment, visitors, and life into many US cities suffering from urban flight.

The Colonial Life (or, "Where to spend your Euros in North America)

While perusing The Economist recently, I came across a short article about the tiny islands of Saint Pierre & Miquelon off the coast of Newfoundland. The article itself concerned the future economic development of the islands which has been hampered by decline of local fishing stock and the purported efforts to lay claim to some of the undersea oil and gas deposits nearby.
What caused my "Hmmm" was the reminder in the article that these islands are among the last vestiges of French colonialism. The local language is French, they are defended by France, send representatives in the French National Assembly and Senate and use the Euro as currency.
There is some worry in the islands that Canada may dispute France's claim to some of these offshore oil and gas deposits and the islanders are concerned that they could be viewed by France as a commodity or bargaining chip and could possibly even see themselves becoming part of Canada itself.

The Dragon and the Shopping Cart

A number of years ago I spent two weeks teaching the basics of E-Commerce to some students from Guangzhou province in southern China.
The class itself was quite high level, and designed to teach the rudiments of X12-based EDI, but also cover the concept of back-end integrations with order management, inventory, and financial systems and the way the data messages themselves were created and transmitted between the parties involved.
Although the students' command of English was only fair, it was far better than my Mandarin, which is non-existent and they seemed to understand my words reasonably well.
After the first few days into the class though, I could tell they were struggling to understand and we had to take an unscheduled diversion from the lesson plan to sort things out.
I learned that it wasn't language difficulties causing confusion, but rather some of the basic business concepts. These students were only familiar with 'cash and carry' business transactions and such familiar concepts (to us) as sending a Purchase Order to a supplier, then having that supplier ship the goods and submit an Invoice was a novel idea. I never did get them to understand the concept of specific terms of sale such as '2-10 Net 15'.
We didn't dwell on some these for long in order to get back on track. I just made sure they understood the basics of the most simple supply chain transactions, but this was a real eye-opener for me. Nevertheless, one need now only look at what thousands of small Chinese manufacturing firms are currently doing with ecommerce to see that in spite of coming from way behind, the Chinese have fully grasped E-business and the current generation's business leaders have learned their lessons well.

Social Contract or Line Item ?

I stumbled across this article in the IHT in which several writers espoused upon the varying ways which firms in the US and Europe are inclined to reduce their employee-related expenses (salaries, wages, etc.) during difficult economic times. In Europe, the trend is to reduce hours, perhaps have brief furloughs, but retain the workers as employees of the company. In the US, companies are more likely to have permanent layoffs in which the position itself is eliminated and the worker has little or no chance of re-employment with his former employer.

I recently had a discussion with an Italian friend about this topic. American firms are laser-focused on the bottom line and look at this issue in purely economic terms. Though all companies say they value their employees, the truth is that any employee, or work group, or even division - is strictly a line item expense on the balance sheet. Under tight economic pressure, American firms have little hesitation about doing whatever it takes to reduce costs, whether it's finding a new office supply vendor, changing internet service providers, or cutting positions. In their view, the company isn't terminating an employee, it's eliminating an unnecessary position (and associated costs). The human being filling that position receives nary an afterthought save for a few wistful reminiscences from former colleagues.

Surely there are notable exceptions on either side, but there seems to be some form of social contract that is part of the fabric of European life. Citizens there pay more in taxes, and perhaps put up with greater bureaucracy and silly rules, but have a far greater social safety net in return.

Getting to Know Our Neighbors to the South

It's been a while since I've posted anything. Time to get back. I was recently chatting with a friend who's based in Lima. We were discussing free trade agreements and international exports between nations. That discussion got me looking a little bit at some of these economies in the Americas and how little most of the US knows about our neighbors south of the border. Last year, for example, (according to the Economist), Peru had a higher rate of GDP growth than China and is expected to remain higher than any Latin American country this year. I didn't know that - did you?

Oh, to be popular....

So, I was browsing Die Welt this evening, trying to maintain my modest comprehension of written German, and perusing an article about a BBC survey which people were asked which country had the most positive influence on world affairs. Considering the article's prominence on the page, the answer was not surprisingly - Germany, followed by Canada and Great Britain. Go figure. The amusing headline though somehow claimed that Germany was thefore the 'most popular' country in the world. Somehow, I don't think that's what the survey was really asking.

But what really grabbed my attention on this same page was a slightly interactive, graphic description of the White House and its various outbuildings. Very cool.

It's the 'Real Thing' ?

So, after something like 25 years, Coca-Cola is finally dropping the word 'Classic' from its labeling for regular Coke. To this day, the company, and practically everyone else insist that the introduction of the sweeter formulated "New Coke" (aka "Coke II") in the mid 1980s was a huge marketing blunder. Books have been written about it, and this brand management fiasco is studied in business schools all over.

I may be alone, but I believe Coke's mistake was not in the creation or introduction of a new, sweeter product per se, but rather the decision to create a huge advertising blitz touting the new product and the demise of the original. Coke's marketing engine was churning out print and television ads full bore hyping this new and improved product. What Coke should have done was quietly release the new, sweeter Coke without fanfare to its bottlers and minimized the marketing. Unfortunately, because of the way it was released, consumers had no choice but to compare the two products and were then in a perfect position to voice their displeasure (loudly). Had the company quietly changed the product, consumers would clearly have noticed the difference, but there wouldn't have been the resulting firestorm of discontent and opposition.
The new product may still have failed, but then the company could have easily reintroduced the old formula with a new marketing splash, "We heard you ! Original formula Coke is back !" or even had two products on the shelves - original Coke with the particular 'bite' that it's known for, and then a second product with the new sweeter formula to rein in the Pepsi crowd. Instead, Coke spent another hundred million dollars (or whatever) to bring back 'old' Coke, undo their marketing campaigns, say their mea culpas, and spend years rebuilding the brand.

Remembrance of things past....

I read another article today – as usual, in the IHT – about the new memorial at the site of the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp. I was about to say the ‘infamous Bergen-Belsen concentration camp’, but in this case, I think no adjective is necessary or could ever truly describe a place such as this.

It’s been a year since I was in Berlin. There was no real purpose to the trip other than it was a city to which I had never visited, I had managed to get a couple days off work, and the airfare was relatively cheap (as was the hotel in which I stayed).

While there, I was continually struck by the lengths to which Germany seems to go in order to ensure that this nation will never forget this terrible past. There still seems to be a kind of national collective guilt and the country is doing all it can to remind its citizens - and the world – that it not only acknowledges the sins of the recent past, but is determined teach the younger generations what happened under their fathers’ and grandfather’s watch.

In Berlin itself, the Neue Wache is a solemn place, and sits in quiet testament to all those who have lost their lives due to oppression. There is Daniel Liebeskind’s relatively new Jewish Museum. Not far from the Brandenburg Gate lies the controversial Holocaust Memorial. I say ‘controversial’ primarily because some feel it doesn’t convey a true sense of being a memorial to the six million – perhaps it’s a bit too ‘artsy’ – but it is there.

The Neue Synagogue is carefully maintained, and under continuous patrol by the Polizei. Children are taught in school about the era of National Socialism. While I was there, I was twice approached by young Germans who noticed me visiting these sites and asked me to remind my friends back in America that what happened in the past was from a different generation. In the Deutsches Historisches Museum, the years from 1933 – 1945 are fully exposed for all to see and nothing has been swept under the revisionist rug. In the south, not far from Munich, the camp at Dachau has been preserved and is carefully maintained.

Racism and xenophobia will never be completely erased from any nation’s consciousness, but Germany is one country that is determined to move forward, while always remembering to look back too.

Seven Years

It was seven years ago - Jan 1, 2002 - that the European Union welcomed the Euro as the official currency of its member nations (although there are still a few EU countries that have not yet adopted it).

It was a huge event then - of course - but even now, with the benefit if hindsight, I still think that this has to be among the top five biggest economic events of the past 100 years.

In order to adopt the Euro, these countries had to look beyond whatever cultural, historical, or even sentimental bonds they may have had with their former currencies. Moreover, the adoption of the Euro tended to force these nations to really begin seeing themselves as part of a larger union itself. Some critics have even called the EU (somewhat derisively, I suspect), the "United States of Europe". Perhaps it is a certain reluctance to join the others and run with the herd is what has kept the UK, Denmark and Sweden from adopting this currency in spite of being among the original EU members. Today, January 1, 2008, Slovakia becomes the latest country to join the Eurozone and adopt the Euro as its native currency.

Guten Rutsch ! Happy New Year !

Since I'm not able to hit the road as often as I'd like, I do most of my travelling in the virtual way by reading articles and stories from other nations and capitals. Today I came across this story in the IHT (again).

After my trip last January (hard to believe it was almost a whole year ago), I sure wish I could have been there to see it this year. I can just picture the scene by the Brandenburg Gate ....

Maybe next year...